🌍 1. Iran Conflict → Rising Oil → Global Pressure
The escalation of tensions in the Middle East—particularly involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran—has become a major trigger for shifting global sentiment.
- Global investors are turning risk-off (avoiding risky assets)
- Oil prices are surging due to threats around the Strait of Hormuz (a critical global energy route)
Impact:
- Energy costs increase
- Global inflation risks rise
- Equity markets come under pressure
This is a classic domino effect:
> War → Oil up → Inflation → Markets down
🏦 2. Foreign Flow: Capital Outflows Begin
Amid rising uncertainty:
- Foreign investors are pulling out trillions of rupiah from the market
- Large institutions are:
- Taking profits
- Rotating into safe havens (gold, USD)
What retail investors often miss:
> The market is not falling because the economy is collapsing, > but because liquidity is temporarily leaving the system
🇮🇩 3. Ramadan/Eid Effect: Liquidity Dries Up
Local factors are also amplifying the situation:
- Ahead of the long Eid holiday:
- Investors shift to short-term trading
- Many reduce exposure and hold cash
- Market activity declines → volatility increases
Additionally:
- Institutions are less aggressive
- Retail investors adopt a wait-and-see approach
👉 This creates a fragile condition:
> Thin market + selling pressure = sharp declines
💣 4. Aftershock of the “MSCI Crash”
Before all this, the market had already taken a hit:
- MSCI-related concerns around transparency and liquidity
- Triggered a major sell-off in large-cap stocks
Meaning:
> The market hasn’t fully recovered, > yet it is already facing new pressure
This is why the current decline feels deeper than usual.
📉 So Why Did IHSG Drop to 6,800?
Because it’s not driven by a single factor, but a combination:
- Global fear (Iran conflict + oil surge)
- Foreign capital outflows
- Pre-Eid liquidity slowdown
- Lingering MSCI impact
👉 A perfect storm
🧠 Key Insight
What’s happening now follows a classic pattern:
- Retail investors:
- Panic
- Fear further downside
- Institutions:
- Quietly start accumulating
Because:
> Markets don’t fall when bad news first appears, > they fall when fear reaches its peak
🔍 My View (Straight Forward)
IHSG at 6,800 is not simply bearish.
This is:
- A phase of deleveraging + repositioning
- A phase where:
- Weak hands exit
- Strong hands begin to enter
If geopolitical tensions ease and oil stabilizes:
👉 The rebound could be fast and aggressive
📚 Sources
- https://www.antaranews.com/berita/5457611/ihsg-ditutup-melemah-investor-risk-off-imbas-konflik-as-iran
- https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20250206111644-17-608435/analisis-penyebab-ihsg-ambles-nyaris-2-hingga-balik-ke-level-6800
- https://www.idnfinancials.com/id/news/61978/perang-iran-tak-kunjung-reda-ihsg-berada-di-pekan-terburuk
- https://www.idnfinancials.com/id/news/62102/investor-trading-jelang-lebaran-ihsg-dan-rupiah-berbalik-melemah
- https://cetro.or.id/artikel/ihsg-anjlok-di-awal-februari-2026-ancaman-msci-investabilitas-dan-dampaknya-pada-saham-konglomerat-cetro-trading-insight
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-rise-middle-east-tensions-hormuz-risk/
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/oil-gains-middle-east-tensions-investor-risk-off